The labor market is steady, according to today’s JOLTS Report, but substantially weaker than it was a year ago.

Hires ticked up, according to  today’s JOLTS Report, but the slide in job openings and quits, paired with the spike in layoffs, signal a labor market which likely continued to soften, despite the stronger-than-expected headline numbers in the September Jobs Report. 

The labor market has been cooling for more than two years. Initially, the slowdown signaled normalization from the post-pandemic rehiring frenzy and Great Resignation. But when the labor market returned to pre-pandemic conditions and kept cooling, labor market observers began to voice concerns about the damage restrictive monetary policy could wreak if sustained for too long.

Just as the weak July Jobs Report alarmed observers and sparked a market selloff last month, the July JOLTS Report released today too shows a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. 

The labor market is now slacker and slower than before the pandemic, and the pace of hiring is the slowest it has been since 2014, outside of the brief pandemic recession.

Job openings were revised downwards for April and inched upwards in May, according to today’s JOLTS Report. The data left the picture much the same—a new post-pandemic normal characterized by a lower-churn labor market.

Today’s JOLTS Report for April is mixed. While the decline in job openings from a revised 8.4M to 8.1M, the lowest level in three years, suggests softening demand for workers, the increase in hires and quits implies quite the opposite—resilient demand and plentiful opportunity.

Today’s mixed JOLTS Report suggests that demand for new workers continues to soften, but that layoffs and discharges remain extremely low.

There are signs that a U.S. labor market rebound is near.

The January JOLTS Report contained few fireworks and painted a picture of a stable and steady labor market with considerably less churn than before the pandemic.

2023 was a strong year in the labor market according to most key indicators, but also the year with one of the largest labor market contractions on record.

Hires and quits slowed meaningfully in November, a sign of weaker employer and employee confidence.

Signs of the labor market slackening raise the odds that no further interest rate increases will be needed.

After the labor market rollercoaster of 2020 to 2022, the labor market has eased back into its usual rhythms—so much so that the JOLTS report is no longer a headline-grabber and has once again become a snooze fest.

Today’s JOLTS report largely resolves the puzzling gap between job openings and online job postings

High interest rates have cooled the labor market by causing job openings and quits to normalize, rather than destroying jobs.

Job openings and quits declined modestly, pointing to gradually normalizing labor market turnover

Job openings declined by half a million, but 3 of 4 key indicators—hiring, quits, and layoffs—improved, suggesting that the labor market remains robust

The pandemic unleashed a turnover tsunami, but now the quits rate is almost back to what it was before

Job openings reported today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fell approximately 4% in March, following the trend seen in online job postings. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges rose 16%, nearing pre-pandemic levels. Both shifts show that demand for labor is cooling overall.