A Mixed JOLTS Report Highlights the Strange New Normal in the Labor Market
A Mixed JOLTS Report Highlights the Strange New Normal in the Labor Market
Today’s mixed JOLTS Report suggests that demand for new workers continues to soften, but that layoffs and discharges remain extremely low. Job openings fell to 8.5 million from 8.8 million, and hires ticked down to 5.5 million from 5.8 million even as quits rose from 2.8M to 3M, and layoffs and firings fell back down to 1.2 million from 1.4 million.
The post-covid new normal is a “stay-in-place” economy, where companies hold onto the workers they have, but are somewhat slow to hire new workers. Here are some statistics that sum up the new reality:
Layoffs and firings are 23% lower than before the pandemic, but hires are also 8% lower. Usually, when labor market conditions weaken, hiring slows and layoffs spike. But that is not the case now. Companies have shifted their focus from addressing staffing shortages by aggressively recruiting new workers to more proactively retaining the workers they have.
Job openings are 21% higher overall than before the pandemic, even though hires are 8% lower. The wedge between openings and hires has been widening for 15 years, suggesting that there is some structural reason for a positive time trend in openings that does not reflect underlying demand for labor. That said, differences across industries are still illustrative. Openings are as much as 56% higher in healthcare, where employers battle shortages of trained nurses and physicians, and 45% higher in manufacturing, where employers complain of skills gaps and an acute need for experienced skilled trades professionals. In both sectors, aging workforces are seeing a waves of retirements, and recruiting the next generation of talent is proving challenging. In both sectors, jobs must typically be performed onsite, which automatically makes them less appealing to the majority of job seekers than remote or hybrid jobs.
The number of monthly hires is only meaningfully higher than before the pandemic in healthcare (by 12%). That recession-proof sector has seen demand for workers grow steadily in recent years, and it is expected to add more jobs than any other sector over the coming decade as an aging, and wealthier, population demands more health services.
Take a tour through the JOLTS report in ZipRecruiter charts.
