Uneventful JOLTS Report Predates Federal Government Hiring Freeze and Layoffs
Uneventful JOLTS Report Predates Federal Government Hiring Freeze and Layoffs
The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report was largely uneventful, painting a picture of a labor market that remains steady, at least for now. Job openings ticked up slightly, hiring was flat, and layoffs and discharges remained near historic lows. The data reflect a labor market that, while softer than its 2022 peak, is still tight by pre-pandemic standards.
Notably, federal government job openings were flat, and layoffs and discharges in the public sector reached an all-time low, a sign that January’s numbers were too early to reflect the Trump Administration’s newly implemented federal hiring freeze and layoffs. We will likely see the impact of those policy changes in the February and March reports, where a sharp drop in government openings and a spike in layoffs could appear.
For now, however, churn remains low across the board. Layoffs and discharges have fallen 16.2% below their pre-pandemic levels, and quits—the best indicator of worker confidence—are 5.7% lower than in February 2020, signaling that workers are increasingly staying put rather than jumping to new opportunities. The labor market has cooled from its red-hot pace, but not through a spike in unemployment—rather, through a slow, grinding decline in job switching and new hiring.
The one segment where movement is happening? Retirements. “Other separations,” which mostly encompass retirements, rose 10% in January, largely driven by retirements in retail trade and professional and business services. This shift isn’t a surprise: The U.S. is now fully in a period some economists call “peak 65,” in which a record number of Americans will turn 65 each year for about five years. Baby boomers are aging out of the workforce, straining labor supply in industries where experience is critical, such as accounting, wholesale trade (the sector with the highest average worker age), and skilled trades. The demographic shift was inevitable—what remains uncertain is whether there will be enough younger workers to fill the gaps left behind.
Taking stock, here’s how today’s labor market compares to February 2020:
Hiring: 10.1% lower
Job openings: 11.0% higher
Layoffs and discharges: 16.2% lower
Retirements: 8.7% higher
Quits (or job switching): 5.7% lower
The key takeaway? This is a low-churn labor market, where predictable retirements are the main driver of worker turnover. For now, the labor market remains stable. But that’s just January. The February report will likely look very different: federal government openings will plunge, quits will spike, and layoffs could finally begin to rise. In other words, calm today, but turbulence ahead.
Take a tour through the JOLTS report in ZipRecruiter charts.
