JOLTS Report Shows Labor Market Dynamics “Little Changed”
JOLTS Report Shows Labor Market Dynamics “Little Changed”
Job openings were revised downwards for April and inched upwards in May, according to today’s JOLTS Report. The data left the picture much the same—a new post-pandemic normal characterized by a lower-churn labor market where job openings are 16% higher than in February 2020 before the pandemic, but monthly hires are 4% lower and layoffs are 16% lower. Under the surface, however, many indicators inched closer to their pre-pandemic norms.
Small business openings decline
Openings at the smallest businesses with just 1-9 employees continued to slide, reaching 1.44 million, down from 1.97 million in September. After the pandemic, small businesses accounted for their highest share of overall job openings on record as entrepreneurs and recently laid off workers took advantage of zero interest rates and infusions of stimulus checks to start new businesses. Business applications remain elevated, but there are signs business formation and the business size class composition of openings are inching closer to the pre-pandemic normal.
Leisure and hospitality openings slip further
During the post-pandemic reopening, especially around the summer of 2021, leisure and hospitality job openings skyrocketed, as did wage growth. Now, activity in the sector appears not only to have returned to its pre-pandemic normal, but to have slowed even further. Hiring is 11% lower than it was before the pandemic, while layoffs (-19%) and quits (-7%) are substantially lower as well.
It is likely that permanently higher relative wages in the sector have reduced worker attrition, improved retention rates, and improved the quality of talent attracted to the industry. Small-scale minimum wage increases in particular cities or states that have disproportionately affected leisure and hospitality workers have often led to lower churn and higher retention rates at local fast-food chains. The pandemic reopening has done the same on a massive scale.
Local government openings surge
Just as they did last summer, job openings in state and local government agencies and departments are surging. Employment at that level of government is still well below its pre-pandemic trend. Historically, election years have generally seen increased hiring of police and other law enforcement officers, due to the political salience of safety and security issues.
Take a tour through the rest of the JOLTS report in ZipRecruiter charts.
