The Labor Market has Stabilized, According to the Jolts Report, But Other Macro Indicators Suggest a Rebound is Imminent
The Labor Market has Stabilized, According to the Jolts Report, But Other Macro Indicators Suggest a Rebound is Imminent
There are signs that a U.S. labor market rebound is near. Leading indicators for the economy rose in February for the first time in two years. The U.S. manufacturing PMI is turning up, with new orders growing and firms building up inventory. Online job postings rose in February and March following a 20-month slide, according to data from ZipRecruiter.
Today’s February JOLTS Report suggests only modest improvement in demand for labor. But the labor market typically lags behind other macroeconomic indicators, so we expect JOLTS indicators to improve in the coming months. In the meantime, job openings, hires, and quits all ticked upwards ever so slightly, suggesting a stable and resilient labor market where workers’ opportunities are gradually expanding.
In February, the biggest increases in hiring were in retail and in transportation, warehousing, and utilities. Consumer spending and investment have been holding up surprisingly well, boosting activity in retail and logistics. The JOLTS report does not yet show that strength trickling down to manufacturing, but with manufacturing orders rising, labor market indicators are likely to follow a few months later.
One notable highlight in the report is that hires hit an all-time high in arts, entertainment, and recreation. Americans continue to spend on experiences—concerts, sporting events, and exercise classes. A sector that was all but shut down during the pandemic is now booming and has the best labor market conditions for workers ever, with the second-highest number of job openings (after the level in March 2022), and the highest number of monthly hires taking place.
Take a tour through the JOLTS report in ZipRecruiter charts.
