JOLTS Report: Labor Market Steady, But Signs of a Turnaround Emerge
JOLTS Report: Labor Market Steady, But Signs of a Turnaround Emerge
The labor market showed little movement in November, according to the latest JOLTS report, but remains significantly softer than it was a year ago. The headline numbers were mixed: job openings surged to their highest level since May, and layoffs stayed historically low. But hiring and quits—key indicators of worker confidence and mobility—were notably weak.
Zooming out, the broader cooling trend is undeniable. Over the past year, job openings have fallen by over 800,000, monthly quits have dropped by nearly 500,000, and monthly hires are down by 300,000. Despite this slowdown, many economists expect a rebound as declining interest rates begin to ease financial pressures on businesses and households.
While the JOLTS data offers little concrete evidence that the labor market is heating up, the sharp increase in job openings could signal improved hiring in 2025. A closer look at the details highlights several emerging dynamics:
Retirements Stall Despite “Peak 65” - The U.S. is in the middle of a five-year period when record numbers of Americans are reaching retirement age. Yet, “other separations”—a category largely made up of retirements—were among the lowest ever recorded in November, particularly in manufacturing and midsized companies.
Recent research by ZipRecruiter suggests a combination of factors: employers, facing tight budgets, are prioritizing retention over hiring, while workers, under financial strain from inflation, are delaying retirement. These trends may reflect the interplay of economic realities and employer strategies to hold onto talent.
Finance Leads Job Growth - Job openings rose most sharply in the finance and insurance sector, which has also seen a stock market rally since the election. Anticipation of looser financial regulations and business-friendly policies may be fueling optimism and hiring in this industry.
Small Businesses Bounce Back - Smaller companies posted larger increases in job openings compared to their larger counterparts. Having borne the brunt of supply chain disruptions and inflation earlier in the recovery, these businesses may now have more room to recover and expand.
While the JOLTS report paints a mixed picture, it hints at the possibility of better news ahead, with the potential for stronger hiring as 2025 gets underway. For now, though, the labor market’s recovery remains slow and uneven.
Take a tour through the JOLTS report in ZipRecruiter charts.
